Is Canada facing a fourth wave of covids?

As some infectious disease experts say, infection can be avoided by getting vaccinated as soon as possible. This optimistic prognosis is possible for Canada even though a new mutation of the coronavirus, the Delta strain, which is harder to stop with just one dose of vaccine, has emerged.

Dr. David Naylor, co-chair of the Canadian Task Force on Immunity from COVID-19, noted that the UK has been a "helpful conduit" for Canada in the pandemic, often several steps ahead in increasing or decreasing infections in the population.

The British scenario for Canada

Since last Christmas, the United Kingdom has been a beacon of hope for Canada, leading by example with its fast-paced vaccination campaign and strict public health measures. In mid-May, while much of Canada was still under quarantine in the third wave, the UK was already opening restaurants and bars. And the risk of becoming infected with COVID-19 was so low that on some days there were not even any deaths from the infection.

But since then, the Delta strain has already proved its strength. Whereas in mid-May there were only 2,000 infections a day in the UK, in the past week that number has risen to 26,000 cases a day. "We are seeing the same thing happening in several provinces as we lift the coronavirus restrictions," Naylor said.

Naylor said even though the U.K. outpaced Canada in the rate of vaccination in the early population — and is still ahead in the latter — there are some differences between the two vaccination programs in those countries, including an expectation to lift most restrictions until as many people as possible have been vaccinated. "Our safety measures can help us reduce the risks from a powerful Delta strain," he said.

When the United Kingdom moved to the third stage of the quarantine on 17 May, allowing indoor dining and visits to cinemas and museums, about half of British residents had already received the first shot and 30% had already been fully vaccinated. Canada, which is now at the same stage as the UK in May, has already administered one dose of the vaccine to 69% of Canadians and 38% of its residents have been fully vaccinated.

Full vaccination saves Canada

But it's too early to relax — studies have shown that one dose of the vaccine is not as effective as two to prevent infection with COVID-19. One dose will help a person, if they do get infected, to have a mild illness and not end up in hospital.

Many countries where the Delta strain is spreading now report the highest rates of infection among unvaccinated people.

Angela Rasmussen, a virologist with the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Research Organization at the University of Saskatchewan, said new strains of coronavirus infection will continue to emerge because viruses mutate as they spread and gain strength.

However, Rasmussen noted that the new mutations are still not so dangerous that vaccines won't affect them at all: "The vast majority of people who have been vaccinated twice will not get seriously ill, even if they do get infected." In addition, vaccinated people are less contagious to others.

The virologist urged the entire Canadian population to be fully vaccinated to further reduce the threat of new strains of mutant coronavirus infection.