A fourth wave? Experts worry about Indian strain
The new modeling allows for the possibility of a large-scale disease spike.
The number of COVID-19 infections is declining nationwide, but health experts are concerned about the spread of the Delta variant, also known as the Indian strain.
New modelling from the Public Health Agency of Canada shows that Delta could lead to a new spike in illness in the fall or winter, and on a larger scale than previously expected.
"Over the past two months, we have made significant progress in reducing COVID-19 activity and in vaccination," says Dr. Teresa Tam, Chief Medical Officer of Health Canada. — The Delta option was the last hurdle. Canada is well positioned to avoid a severe Delta wave.
The modelling considers two scenarios. According to the first, 75% of Canadians aged 12 and older would be fully vaccinated during the summer. According to Tam, if personal protective measures, such as wearing masks, are eliminated during this period, the Delta option could cause a fourth wave and overwhelm the health care system.
The second scenario assumes that 80% of the population will be fully vaccinated over the summer and only then will individual protection measures be withdrawn. Perhaps in this case the country will be able to withstand the new strain and avoid a surge of disease.
Currently in Canada, 76.5% of the population is vaccinated with one dose and about 24% with two doses. The Public Health Agency states that while there may be an increase in cases in the fall and winter, successful vaccination of the younger population could significantly reduce the burden on hospitals.
The first cases of Delta variant infection were detected in Canada in April and since then, the number has been increasing. According to Tam, the number of cases associated with this strain has quadrupled since April. Data from the UK shows that it is spreading much faster than previous variants of the virus. Ontario estimates Delta will become the dominant strain in the province this summer.
Despite concerns, Canada has already begun gradually relaxing restrictions including the mask regime.
