Canada's unemployment rate continues to rise slowly
Statistics Canada reports for October.
The Canadian labor market continues to move on a roll — the unemployment rate increased for the fourth time in the last six months, and the employment rate on the contrary decreased. This was reported by StatCan in its report for October.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate rose 0.2% from September to 5.7%. Despite fluctuations in one direction or the other over the past six months, the situation has not corrected since May, which was a watershed for the Canadian labor market.
Since April, the rate has increased by 0.7% after remaining at a near-record low of 5% between December 2022 and April 2023. In absolute terms, there were 1.2 million unemployed in October, up 171,000 ( 16.2%) from April.
The unemployment rate among young people (aged 15 to 24 years) has especially increased: in October it increased by 0.9% and reached 11.4%. From March to October, the unemployment rate in this category increased by 2.7% among girls and by 1.8% among boys.
Employment
The October employment rate (61.9%) is down from the recent peak of 62.5% recorded in January 2023, but little changed from October 2022 (62.0%). The rate has been virtually unchanged since July 2023.
The only category of the population that showed an increase in employment in October was men aged 55 and over. The indicator for them improved by 1.3%, which is 31,000 more than a month ago.
In the other categories, the slight growth is offset by a slight decline.
Employment in individual spheres
In construction, employment increased by 23,000 (plus 1.5%). Despite growth in this industry in October, the rate was virtually unchanged from the same month in 2022. And compared to the record high reached in January 2023, employment fell by 32,000 (-2.0%).
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Employment in information, culture, and recreation rose by 21,000 (plus 2.5%) in October, partially offsetting a decline in September (-12,000; -1.4%). Wholesale and retail trade employment fell by 22,000 (-0.7%) in October, the first decline since October 2022 — this area is still up year-over-year (up 1.7%).
Manufacturing employment fell 19,000 (-1.0%) from September, but was little changed on a year-over-year basis. And employment in health care and social assistance was virtually unchanged for the third consecutive month.
Employment in different provinces
The employment rate rose in 4 Canadian provinces:
- in Alberta;
- in Saskatchewan;
- in Nova Scotia;
- in New Brunswick.
Employment in Alberta rose by 38,000 or 1.5% in October, offsetting a decline in September — with the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.8%. Most of the gains were in health care and social assistance, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and natural resources.
In Saskatchewan, employment increased by 9,100 (plus 1.5%), meaning it increased for the second consecutive month. The unemployment rate fell by 0.5% to 4.4%.
Employment rose in Nova Scotia (plus 8,200 or 1.7%) and New Brunswick (plus 2,400 or 0.6%). The unemployment rate is now the same in both provinces at 6.6%, with little change in Nova Scotia and a 0.6% decrease in New Brunswick compared to September.
But in Quebec, employment fell 0.5% (22,000) in October after rising 0.9% (39,000) in September. Employment in the province changed little between January and August 2023. The unemployment rate rose 0.5% to 4.9% in October
Inflation and consumer prices
StatCan are quite optimistic in their conclusions: inflationary pressures have eased compared to 2022, and year-on-year growth in the consumer price index is slowing. However, the higher cost of essential goods and services continues to put financial pressure on many households. In September, for example, increases in the cost of housing (up 6.0%) and food (up 5.9%) outpaced annualized wage growth (up 5.0%).
According to the latest data, year-on-year average hourly wages rose 4.8% (up CA$ 1.56 to CA$ 34.08) in October after rising 5.0% in September.
In October 2023, one in three Canadians aged 15 and older (33.1%) lived in a household that had difficulty or great difficulty meeting their financial needs for transportation, housing, food, clothing and other necessary expenses. Among immigrants who arrived in the previous 10 years, the percentage is even higher at 44.7%.
As for the largest Canadian census metropolitan areas, the highest proportion of financially distressed residents are based in Southern Ontario: St. Catharines-Niagara (41.8%), Windsor (41.0%), Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (40.7%) and Toronto (38.1%). In contrast, Quebec (20.5%), Kelowna (26.7%) and Gatineau (26.9%) have the best rates.
