Canada predicts record high share of immigrants in 2041
New data indicate that about 25 percent of Canada's population will come from Asia and Africa.
The StatsCAN report says that, in keeping with a trend that began in the early 1990s, immigration will remain a major driver of population growth in the coming decades.
Under the baseline scenario examined by Statistics Canada, Canada's population in 2041 will reach 47.7 million. Of those, 25 million would be immigrants or children of immigrants born in Canada, more than half of the total population. That would increase 2016 numbers by 12.4 percent, when 14.4 million people lived in Canada and the same group accounted for 40 percent of that total.
According to StatsCan, Canada's immigrant population could be between 29.1% and 34.0% in 2041, a record high since the Canadian Confederation of 1867.
Other parameters show that Canada's population will include between 9.9 and 13.9 million people born in Asia or Africa. This would represent 23.1% to 26.9% of Canada's total population in 2041, up from 13.5% in 2016.
Indian citizens prevail among those arriving in Canada for permanent residence: 128,000 Indians became new residents in 2021. Chinese citizens come in second place. The same two countries share first place in terms of the largest number of study permit holders.
Statistics Canada reports another indicator that will remain unchanged: as in 2016, by 2041 the vast majority of immigrants will continue to live in Ontario. As for cities, Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver will remain the top three metropolitan areas of choice for newcomers. This will inevitably exacerbate the contrast between urban and rural regions and exacerbate some of the current problems associated with their specific demographic dynamics, including the increasingly frequent issues of residential real estate and infrastructure development.
In the meantime, Canada continues to work on changes to its immigration policy, proposing innovations to allow faster processing of applications, as well as expanding some programs and increasing the threshold number of immigrants the provinces can accept.
Recall that non data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), there are already 231,625 new permanent residents in the first half of 2022.