How will Russia's war with Ukraine affect Canada's economy?
Direct and indirect effects on future immigrants.
First of all, the sanctions against Russia will hit the world oil market. On February 24, the price of European Brent crude oil exceeded $105 USD per barrel, which has not happened since 2014.
Canada imports about $550 million CAD worth of crude oil from Russia each year, despite the fact that Canada has its own oil (bituminous) sands in the province of Alberta, where specialists in this field are constantly needed. Canada's oil reserves are five times larger than those of Saudi Arabia. But producing oil is not enough; it must still be distributed across the country, and the main reason Canada has been buying oil from Russia is insufficient pipeline capacity.
To be fully self-sufficient in oil, Canada will have to invest in new pipelines and, most likely, in refineries. This means it will need specialists in extraction and processing of raw materials, design and construction of pipeline transport, and later — service personnel.
The good news is that the U.S. imports even more crude oil annually than Canada, even though it is the world leader in oil production. If the US and Canada decide to break trade agreements with Russia, of course Canada will not be able to offer supplies of sufficient oil immediately and will have to buy fuel itself. But in the long run, Canada has a better chance of establishing production and transportation of energy raw materials in a relatively short period of time.
In addition, just recently Canada invested a lot of money in a new plant to produce environmentally friendly fuel, biodiesel, which is made from canola, a special type of rapeseed. Rapeseed also needs someone to grow it, and Canada has long needed farmers, including grain farmers. Russia and Ukraine held a stable quarter of the world wheat market before the conflict began in February 2022; we can assume that their position will soon be shaken.