Canada on the eve of the fourth wave of COVID-19
What will trigger a new attack of coronavirus infection?
Experts point to several factors that are expected to cause a new Crown attack on Canada: the spread of the Delta strain to unvaccinated residents, the opening of borders, school visits and the emergence of new viral mutations.
What to expect from the fourth wave?
The impact of the fourth wave of coronavirus infection in Canada will be largely determined by the level of collective immunity to COVID-19. There are already many among the population who have been double vaccinated, and doctors expect that this may go some way to prevent infection and hospital overcrowding of people who carry the disease severely.
More than 1.4 million cases of COVID-19 infection have been reported in Canada so far, but only 2.6% of Canadians were found to have antibodies to the variant of the coronavirus infection that hit the country back in early 2021.
"The question is, does the population have sufficient immunity? No." said Raivat Deonandan, a global health epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, "The reason is that we measure collective immunity by the number of people who are cured and the number of vaccinations. And that approach to defining collective immunity is wrong.
The threat of a Delta attack
A serious point that could trigger a major shockwave is the spread of the more contagious and potentially more deadly Delta strain, which is already leading to new COVID-19 outbreaks around the world.
"We know, for example, from observations in the UK, that the Delta virus is able to affect unvaccinated people very quickly. They are at very, very high risk," commented Dr Dominic Mertz, an infectious disease doctor and assistant professor of medicine at McMaster University.
Open borders
Canada may also be at increased risk of exposure to the Delta strain due to opening its borders, first to travelers from the United States and then from other countries.
As Dr. Allison McGuire, a medical microbiologist and infectious disease specialist from Toronto, notes, the more people start travelling both domestically and internationally, the higher the risk of infection. So we shouldn't be surprised if the Delta variant starts spreading very quickly soon. And if that happens, then Canada will have to go back to travel restrictions and other public health measures.
A virus in schools
The largest group of unvaccinated Canadians are under 12 years old who do not yet meet the criteria for vaccination. That's why virologists think opening schools in September could put them at greater risk of infection. Already, many public health experts say it's time to start vaccinating children to reach 85 per cent of the population. This simply needs to be done to develop collective immunity to coronavirus infection.
According to Alison Kelvin, a virologist and assistant professor at Dalhousie University, as long as children under 12 are not eligible for vaccination, older Canadians and those with weakened immune systems will remain vulnerable to contracting the coronavirus.
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Another potential threat that Canada is likely to face is the possibility that more new variants of the COVID-19 virus could appear in the near future. And they could be even worse than Delta, because the virus is not only mutating, it's amplifying. And it has a very high capacity to affect unvaccinated people around the world.
"Definitely we will see other variants of the coronavirus. Whether they will be more serious or worrisome is another question," Dr. Kelvin explained, "but so far we're seeing a very interesting trend... It seems that as new strains emerge, the virus only increases its ability to infect and speed of spread."
Also, Allison Kelvin notes that covid is very unpredictable, its behavior cannot even be compared to a constantly circulating virus such as the flu.
Already, most health professionals believe COVID-19 will become endemic (i.e. permanent) in Canada and around the world. And only vaccination can stop its striking power.
