Canada and India have reconciled: what will change for immigrants

Canada has signed deals with India worth $5,500,000,000 CAD. For the first time in eight years, a Canadian Prime Minister flew to New Delhi. And this comes after a diplomatic scandal, expulsion of diplomats, and an almost complete breakdown of relations. Why did Mark Carney fly to meet Narendra Modi, and how will this affect immigration to Canada?

Why Carney is traveling the world

Canada is changing rapidly, just like the rest of the world. There are no perfect countries to live in anymore—you have to make trade-offs. Yesterday's friends are becoming enemies and vice versa.

Donald Trump imposed record tariffs on Canadian goods—up to 50% on steel and aluminum. He publicly called Canada's Prime Minister a "governor," posted a map showing Canada colored in the American flag, and declared that Canada would become the fifty-first state.

Canada's exports to the U.S. dropped by a quarter. Tens of thousands of jobs were lost. America accounts for 76% of all Canadian exports. Almost everything.

Mark Carney stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that if your main trading partner uses economic ties as a weapon—you need other partners. And urgently.

First, Carney flew to Beijing. In January 2026, a trade agreement with China was signed—tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles dropped from 100% to 6.1%, though annual imports are capped at 49,000 vehicles. This decision is already changing the market: Canada expects affordable Chinese electric vehicles priced under $35,000 CAD to arrive.

And now—India. The world's third-largest economy. One and a half billion people. A huge market for Canadian resources. And, by the way, the largest source of immigrants to Canada.

Carney's visit to India: what happened

From February 27 to March 2, 2026, Mark Carney was on an official visit to India. This is the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to the country in eight years—the previous bilateral visit took place in 2018. Carney didn't come alone: he brought senior ministers, provincial leaders, and CEOs of major Canadian companies. This isn't a friendly courtesy visit, but a serious business mission.

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A few weeks before Carney's visit to India, a delegation of more than twenty Canadian university presidents had already traveled there—the largest academic delegation in the history of Canada-India relations. This shows the scale: the educational corridor is being restored at a systemic level.

The result of the visit: ten commercial deals signed worth over $5,500,000,000 CAD. Five memorandums of understanding concluded—in energy, critical minerals, clean energy, artificial intelligence, and culture. Plus twenty-four educational agreements.

Modi stated at a joint press conference that relations have advanced a "light year" forward over the past year. Carney himself said that in one year, the interaction between the countries was greater than in the previous two decades.

The scandal that seemed irreparable

To understand how incredible this turnaround is, you need to remember the history.

In September 2023, a diplomatic crisis erupted. Justin Trudeau publicly accused India of involvement in the killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil. India categorically denied any involvement. Both sides expelled diplomats. Relations collapsed.

Indian students began massively turning away from Canada. The number of study visa applications from India dropped by 40%.

In October 2024—another escalation. Both countries again expelled six diplomats each. The situation seemed deadlocked.

And now—three years after the crisis began—Carney flies to New Delhi and signs agreements worth billions of dollars. Why such a sharp turnaround? The answer is quite simple—Donald Trump. Tariffs, threats, pressure. Canada is looking for alternative partners, and India is the perfect candidate.

The main deal—uranium from Saskatchewan

The biggest deal of the visit—a contract by Cameco from Saskatchewan to supply uranium to India. The contract value is $2,600,000,000 CAD. That's about 22 million pounds of uranium from 2027 to 2035, intended to support India's civilian nuclear energy program.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe stated that the deal will benefit the province's economy and create jobs in northern Saskatchewan. This is an important signal for those planning immigration: mining, nuclear energy, engineering—this province will see employment growth. Yes, it's cold there, but real estate is significantly cheaper than in Toronto and Vancouver, and there will be jobs.

But the uranium deal is just the beginning.

Comprehensive trade agreement

The leaders announced the launch of negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The goal is to complete negotiations by the end of 2026 and double bilateral trade to $70,000,000,000 CAD by 2030. Current volume is around $31,000,000,000 CAD. Doubling in four years is an ambitious task.

Why does this matter for immigration? Trade agreements often include provisions on professional mobility—similar to how Canada's agreement with the U.S. and Mexico works. If mobility provisions are included in the agreement, this could expand categories of work permits exempt from the Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) process. It should be understood that such benefits would apply to Indian citizens, not citizens of CIS countries.

India's High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, stated that the model will be India's recent trade agreement with the European Union—one of the largest in history. According to him, both sides are committed to completing negotiations quickly.

Education and talent—this directly affects immigration

The University of Toronto announced $25,000,000 CAD in scholarships for more than 220 Indian students. Plus 300 paid research positions. University President Melanie Woodin noted that since 2020, the university has already provided scholarships to more than 700 Indian students totaling $63,000,000 CAD. And that's just one university.

In total, thirteen new partnerships between Canadian and Indian universities were signed. Among the Canadian institutions—University of Toronto, McGill, University of British Columbia, Simon Fraser University, Dalhousie, and others. These are Canada's top universities.

Of particular interest is the opening of three hybrid learning campuses in India. An artificial intelligence center from the University of Toronto jointly with the Indian Institute of Science. A similar center from McGill. And an innovation campus from Dalhousie with Indian technical universities. Essentially, Canadian education is coming to India.

An agreement was also signed between India's AICTE and Canada's MITACS for the Globalink research internship program. Each year, approximately 300 Indian undergraduate students will come for research internships at Canadian universities. Many of them will later enroll in master's programs, get a post-graduation work permit, and apply for permanent residence. This is a pipeline—structured, organized, supported by the governments of both countries.

There's movement in the other direction too. More than 85 Canadian graduate students and researchers from eleven universities will go to India under the scholarship program. Areas include clean hydrogen, artificial intelligence, and climate resilience. Plus dual degree programs and joint study programs have been announced.

A Joint Talent and Innovation Strategy was also announced—structured workforce mobility between the two countries.

What This Means for Russian-Speaking Applicants

India is the largest source country of immigrants to Canada, and has been long before the recently signed agreements. In 2024, Canada welcomed nearly 150,000 new permanent residents from India — four times more than a decade ago. By comparison, the Philippines, which ranks second, contributed three times fewer. China — even less. In the first half of 2025, about 60,000 new permanent residents arrived from India — more than all other top five countries combined.

The Indo-Canadian community numbers nearly two million people. Indian citizens hold about half of the approximately 927,000 work permits set to expire in 2026.

And this is without any special partnership — just through regular immigration programs. Now imagine what will happen after the Comprehensive Trade Agreement is signed.

The Fraud Problem — Why Rules Were Tightened

We need to talk about the other side of the coin. Such a massive influx has created serious fraud problems.

In 2024, Canadian immigration services verified half a million acceptance letters from educational institutions. Over 10,000 fake documents were uncovered. According to investigations, about 80% of the forgeries were linked to students from two Indian states — Gujarat and Punjab. Unlicensed consultants in India were selling fake acceptance letters from Canadian universities. People paid huge sums of money, got visas, came to Canada — only to find out their documents were fraudulent. Some faced deportation.

Canada responded harshly. They introduced mandatory verification of acceptance letters through an online portal. Document checks were tightened. The rejection rate for student visas for Indian applicants rose to 74%.

This is exactly why the new restrictions on international student admissions are primarily aimed at combating these abuses, not targeting legitimate students.

What About Our Students?

Here's good news for Russian-speaking applicants. Canadian universities are interested in diversification. When one country dominates this heavily — it's a risk. The diplomatic scandal with India demonstrated this clearly: the student flow dropped by 40%, and universities lost millions.

That's why Canadian universities are eager to accept students from CIS countries. In our experience, visas for students from our countries are being approved. We see this with our clients. Moreover, many universities offer scholarships for international students — and they're awarded automatically upon admission, based on academic performance.

Competition is growing, but doors remain open for our students. The key is to submit documents correctly and on time. If you're considering studying in Canada as a path to immigration, sign up for a consultation about studying — we'll help you choose a program and university.

Competition in Express Entry

What does the Indian partnership mean for all other applicants? Competition in the Express Entry pool in priority sectors will intensify. Canada prioritizes healthcare workers, engineers, AI specialists, and energy sector workers. The Indo-Canadian partnership is creating jobs precisely in these industries — energy, critical minerals, technology. This means more vacancies, but also more competitors.

The Express Entry cutoff score is no longer the only deciding factor. Category-based draws mean that a candidate with the "right" profession can receive an invitation even with a lower score. If you work in engineering, energy, technology, or healthcare — this is your advantage. Use it.

Provincial Programs — The Main Tool

In the 2026–2028 immigration plan, the share of provincial nominations has increased significantly. That's a record 91,500 spots — a 66% increase compared to 55,000 spots in 2025. A provincial nomination in Express Entry adds 600 points, which virtually guarantees an invitation.

Saskatchewan, whose uranium industry is getting a major boost from the Cameco deal, may expand its immigration streams. If you have experience in mining, nuclear physics, or engineering — take a serious look at this province.

Besides streams linked to Express Entry, there are also independent provincial streams with simplified requirements for candidates. If you've only been looking at federal programs — it's time to explore provincial ones. They're becoming the main immigration tool for those who don't score enough points in the federal pool.

If you want to figure out which immigration path suits you best — federal program or provincial nomination — book a consultation with a licensed immigration consultant. Ivanna Pavlenko will help assess your chances and choose the optimal strategy.

A New Reality

The world is changing fast. Canada is reshaping its alliances, trade connections, and immigration system all at once. First China — now India. What seemed impossible three years ago — friendship with India after a diplomatic scandal — has become reality. Your situation can change just as quickly.

Competition is intensifying. India is strengthening its position as Canada's main source of skilled workers. But opportunities remain for Russian-speaking applicants: provincial programs are growing, category-based draws are opening new pathways, and Canadian universities are interested in students from our countries. The key is to act while the window of opportunity is open.