Canada chooses China instead of the USA

Trump has seized control of Venezuela. He's demanding Denmark sell Greenland and preparing to attack Iran. And he's publicly stating that Canada will become the fifty-first state of the US. This isn't fantasy—it's happening right now.

And Canada is already looking for protection. But not from America—from China, with whom they recently had a serious conflict. Today we'll talk about Trudeau's humiliation, Chinese prisons, new international agreements, and how this could all end.

Venezuela, Greenland, Canada—Trump's Pattern

To understand why Canadians take Trump's threats seriously, look at what he's already done to other countries.

Let's start with Venezuela. On January 3rd, 2026, American special forces carried out an operation to capture President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. Trump announced that the US would now "manage" Venezuela and its oil resources. A country with the world's largest oil reserves—and America is openly claiming control over it.

For Canada, this is a warning sign. Venezuelan oil competes with Canadian oil, and they're very similar in composition. The US has already started pressuring Venezuelan oil shipments, intercepting tankers. If Americans get access to these resources, dependence on Canadian exports will decrease. And oil is one of Canada's main bargaining chips in trade disputes with the US.

Then there's Greenland. Trump is demanding Denmark sell the island. Denmark refuses—Greenland is not for sale. But the pressure continues. Trump openly says: the US needs Greenland for national security. And he's ready to use economic leverage to get what he wants. He's already announced he'll impose 10% tariffs on countries that prevent him from getting Greenland.

Ukraine has also suffered. Reports say Trump's conflict over Greenland derailed the signing of an $800 billion "prosperity plan."

Then Iran. Trump openly talks about being ready to strike nuclear facilities. Negotiations have failed, the rhetoric keeps getting harsher. Another front where America is showing that diplomacy takes a back seat.

French President Macron commented on the situation directly: "People ask themselves every day whether Greenland will be seized, whether Canada will be threatened with becoming the fifty-first state. The US is gradually turning away from its allies."

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And German President Steinmeier added: "We're witnessing an erosion of values by our most important partner—the US. This is about preventing the world from becoming a place where the strongest take what they want."

And on January 20th, 2026—on inauguration day for his second term—Trump posts a photo from the Oval Office on his social media. There's a map in the background. On this map, Canada is colored in the American flag's colors—as part of the US. This isn't a meme from some anonymous user. This is the official account of the President of the United States.

Venezuela, Greenland, Canada—this isn't a random collection. These are resources America needs. Oil, Arctic control, territory. And Trump has shown he's ready to act.

How a Joke Became a Threat

It all started on November 29th, 2024. Dinner at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. At the table—then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He flew in for urgent negotiations because Trump had just announced plans to impose twenty-five percent tariffs on all Canadian goods.

Trudeau tries to explain the consequences: such tariffs would completely destroy the Canadian economy. To which Trump responds with a phrase that will go down in history:

"So your country can't survive without ripping off the US for a hundred billion dollars? Then maybe Canada should become a state and you could be governor?"

Laughter around the table. Seemed like typical Trump provocation. But by December 10th, Trump writes on his social network: "It was nice to have dinner with Governor Justin Trudeau of the great State of Canada." With a capital S. Not so funny anymore.

By February 2025, the rhetoric gets even harsher. In a Super Bowl interview—the most-watched event of the year in the US—Trump states: this is a real thing. Canada would be much better off becoming the fifty-first state because America is losing two hundred billion dollars a year on trade with its northern neighbor.

And on January 7th, 2025, at a press conference, the US president openly announces: to absorb Canada, he intends to use economic force. Not military—economic. And he emphasizes special interest in Canadian resources.

In May, Trump offers Canada free protection under the American missile defense system—if the country joins the US. Otherwise, protection will cost $61 billion CAD. This isn't jokes anymore. This is an ultimatum.

Tariff War—Numbers and Consequences

Over the year, Trump imposed tariffs five times. Started at 25%, ended at 50% on steel and aluminum. And in October, something almost comical happened. A Canadian business coalition launches ads in the US with Ronald Reagan quotes about the importance of free trade with Canada. Trump responds by imposing an additional 10% tariff. For ads featuring a former American president!

Now about the consequences. Canada's exports to the US dropped 26% in the first four months of 2025. About 54,000 manufacturing jobs lost. Unemployment hit 7%—the highest since 2016, excluding the pandemic.

According to Bank of Canada estimates, the country's economy contracted by 1.5% relative to projections. One and a half percent of GDP—that's tens of billions of dollars.

Specific industries were hit hardest. Ontario's automotive industry—factories work closely with American ones, parts cross the border multiple times during production. Tariffs broke these chains. Steel and aluminum producers in Quebec. The forestry industry in British Columbia. Farmers across the country.

What Canadians Actually Think

Trump apparently expected that under economic pressure, Canadians would ask to join the US themselves. They'd look at falling wages, closing factories—and say: fine, we give up, take us. He guessed wrong. And this is where it gets really interesting.

Trump thought Canadians would break. Under pressure, they'd agree to become a state. Know what the polls showed? 90% against. Ninety percent. This isn't just a majority. This is wartime-level national unity.

But it gets even more telling. Pollsters asked follow-up questions. Would you change your position if you lost your job because of tariffs? 74% said no. What if a deep recession started? 76%—still no.

Canadians are willing to endure economic hardship to preserve sovereignty. This isn't just a poll—it's a statement of national identity.

Interesting to look at the breakdown by political views. Even among conservative voters—those traditionally closer to American Republicans—80% oppose joining. 20% in favor—that's the maximum among all groups, but still an overwhelming minority.

By region: Alberta—the province often compared to Texas—shows 18% support for the idea. Quebec leads the opposition—77% strongly against.

And Canadians moved from words to action. The "Buy Canadian" movement united almost one and a half million participants on social media. A third of Canadians are completely boycotting American goods. Stores now have special "Made in Canada" labels.

Tourism from Canada to the US dropped 31% over nine months of 2025. This will cost the American tourism industry nearly $6 billion CAD. Canadians are voting with their wallets.

Trust in the US as a partner has plummeted from 54% to 34%. What does this match? China's trust level. America and China are now equally "reliable" partners for Canadians. For a country that has been America's closest ally for seventy years, this is a seismic shift.

New Prime Minister

Against this backdrop of crisis, Justin Trudeau resigns on January 6, 2025. Internal party crisis, departure of key ministers, falling ratings. The Trudeau era is over.

On March 9, Mark Carney becomes leader of the Liberal Party. He's not your typical politician. Former Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, he steered the country through the global financial crisis. Then he headed the Bank of England—the first foreigner in that position in the bank's three-hundred-year history. They say he's a man with an impeccable financial reputation and international connections.

Carney wins the leadership race with 86% of the vote. And on April 28, he leads the Liberals to victory in the federal election. He immediately takes a hard line. His rhetoric combines economic pragmatism with national dignity.

Quote: "Donald Trump has imposed unjustified tariffs on what we build, what we sell, on our livelihoods. Canada will never become part of America—in any form."

And another one that became almost a meme:

"In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win."

Davos Speech—The End of the Old World

In January 2026, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mark Carney delivers a speech that would later be called pivotal.

He says: the old order isn't coming back. The comfortable assumption that geography and alliance membership automatically ensure prosperity and security no longer holds. The era when Canada could simply rely on being neighbors with the US is over.

Then comes the key point:

"You cannot live in the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination."

In plain language: if your main trading partner uses economic ties as a weapon, you need other partners. And urgently.

Carney announces a goal: double exports to countries outside the US within ten years. This is an ambitious target. 76% of Canadian exports currently go to America. Almost everything.

But where to look for alternatives? Europe is far away and has its own problems. Japan and Korea are good, but their markets aren't that large. That leaves the obvious candidate—the world's second-largest economy. China.

The Conflict That Shook Relations

And here we need to remember a story that shows: what's happening now seemed completely impossible. Because three years ago, China was holding Canadians in prison.

On December 1, 2018, at Vancouver airport, Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou—CFO of Chinese company Huawei and daughter of its founder. The arrest was at the request of the US for extradition over alleged violations of sanctions against Iran.

China demanded immediate release, but Canada refused—the country has an extradition treaty with the US, so the court had to review the case.

Nine days later, on December 10, China detained two Canadian citizens. Michael Kovrig—a former diplomat working for an international organization. Michael Spavor—a businessman organizing cultural exchanges with North Korea. The charge: espionage.

What happened next, Canadians call "hostage diplomacy." Both Michaels spent nearly three years in detention.

Kovrig later described the conditions: solitary cell, lights on 24 hours a day, interrogations for six to nine hours daily. For the first six months, he had no access to a lawyer or consular assistance.

Canadian society was shocked. Yellow ribbons in support of the "two Michaels" appeared across the country. Pressure on the government grew, but Trudeau refused to interfere in the judicial process in Meng's case.

All three were released only on September 24, 2021—on the same day. Meng signed a deferred prosecution agreement with the US Department of Justice. And the "two Michaels" flew home aboard a Canadian military plane.

Relations were destroyed. But the worst thing for public image happened a year later.

The G20 Summit Incident

November 16, 2022. G20 Summit on the island of Bali in Indonesia. Trudeau and Xi Jinping had a brief private meeting, but details of the conversation leaked to the Canadian press. A camera captured a moment that went around the world. Xi Jinping approaches Trudeau and starts scolding him—right in front of journalists.

"Everything we discussed leaked to the papers. This is unacceptable. And it wasn't done the right way," the Chinese president says through a translator.

Trudeau tries to respond with something about free and open dialogue, about different views on things... But Xi cuts him off with the phrase: "Create the conditions first."

The video was watched by millions. Canada's prime minister was publicly humiliated at an international summit. For Canadians, this became a symbol of how badly relations with China had deteriorated.

And now, three years after this incident, five years after "hostage diplomacy," everything has changed.

Beijing Visit—A New Chapter

Remember the video where Xi Jinping scolds Trudeau like a schoolboy? That very humiliation on camera? Well, after that, Canada flew to Beijing to make amends. How is this possible? On January 13, 2026, Mark Carney arrives in Beijing. This is the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017. Nearly nine years. After three days of negotiations, a trade agreement is signed that changed everything.

The main point—delivery of electric vehicles from China. It's important to explain that Canada imports cars assembled in the US, Korea, or Europe. There's also domestic assembly. There were practically no Chinese cars on Canadian roads. The reason is that tariffs on them were a whopping 100%.

Under the new agreement, tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are reduced to 6.1%. The difference is huge. This is the response to Trump's trade wars.

However, there's a quota—49,000 vehicles per year in the first phase. Expanding to 70,000 over five years. And an important condition: more than half of imported cars must cost less than $35,000 CAD. This makes electric vehicles affordable for ordinary Canadians.

The agreement takes effect on March 1, 2026.

What did Canada get in return? China reduces tariffs on Canadian canola—from 85% to 15%. This is critically important for farmers in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Discriminatory tariffs on lobsters, crabs, and peas are being eliminated. Expected export orders—nearly $3 billion CAD.

A bonus for ordinary citizens—visa-free travel for Canadians to China. Waiting for confirmation of this information.

If you've been following Canada-China relations in recent years, you understand how much of a 180-degree turn this is. A country that was recently officially called a "threat" is now a strategic partner.

Reaction—Different Voices

The reaction to the deal was predictably heated. Ontario Premier Doug Ford—a conservative—harshly criticized the agreement:

"The federal government is inviting a flood of cheap Chinese electric vehicles without real guarantees of investment in our economy. China now has a foothold in the Canadian market."

His concern is understandable. Ontario is home to Canada's main automotive plants. If the market gets flooded with cheap Chinese cars—what will happen to local production?

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called the deal "problematic for Canada": "I think in the long run they're going to regret this day."

The hint is clear: Washington may impose additional sanctions against Canada for cooperating with China.

But Trump's own reaction was unexpectedly calm: "That's fine. That's what he should do. If you can make a deal with China — do it."

Maybe he understands: when you back your neighbor into a corner, they start looking for a way out. And they find it where they weren't looking before. This is a direct consequence of his own policy.

The Canadian-American conflict has become part of a global conversation about what's happening to the Western alliance. European leaders are openly talking about eroding trust in the U.S. But Canada didn't wait for the situation to resolve itself — it started taking action.

Historical Parallels

Historian Craig Baird recalls an interesting precedent. In the 1890s, the U.S. already tried using tariffs as a tool to pressure Canada.

The McKinley Tariffs — named after the future president — were designed to inflict such economic damage that Canadians would beg to join the Union. Same logic: create unbearable conditions, and the northern neighbor will give up.

The result was the opposite. The tariffs strengthened Canadian nationalism. The country started building a railroad to the Pacific, developing trade with Britain, and seeking new markets. Economic pressure united Canadians around the idea of independence.

One hundred and thirty years later, history is repeating itself. Same methods — same results. Economic coercion doesn't work against people willing to endure hardship for sovereignty.

What This Means for Those Planning to Move

Now let's talk about what concerns many readers. How does all this geopolitics affect immigration?

Most people thinking about moving to North America initially look at the U.S. The American Dream, Hollywood, Silicon Valley — it's all appealing. Canada is often seen as a backup option.

But in reality, immigrating to the U.S. is quite difficult. The main path for professionals is the H-1B work visa, but Trump introduced a $100,000 CAD fee per petition. Not every employer can afford to pay that amount. The green card lottery has either been canceled or put on pause. They've also stopped issuing visas to citizens of Russia, Kazakhstan, and other countries. Asylum seekers wait years for their applications to be reviewed.

What about immigrating to Canada? There's a clear immigration plan that provides for 380,000 permanent residents annually for the next three years. There's an Express Entry system that works on points. You earn points for age, education, work experience, language skills, and other factors. Every few weeks, selections are held — they invite candidates with the highest scores. The time from invitation to getting permanent residency is about six months. Not years — months.

Provincial Nominee Programs have received a record number of spots, and their requirements for getting an invitation are usually easier than the main federal programs.

If you're considering immigrating to Canada, we recommend booking a consultation with a licensed immigration consultant who can help identify the most suitable program: book a consultation.

Economic Consequences — What to Watch For

Seriously though, the economic situation creates both risks and opportunities for immigrants.

Let's start with the risks. The tariff war has hit the job market in certain sectors. The auto industry, steel production, forestry — there are layoffs there. If you're planning to work in these fields, especially in Ontario — keep an eye on the news.

On the other hand, the pivot to China could create new opportunities. Increased trade means growth in logistics, need for specialists with knowledge of Chinese language and culture, and development of new business directions.

Cheap electric vehicles are good news for consumers. After federal EV purchase subsidies were canceled, sales dropped. Now affordable Chinese cars could revive the market. Though it's a challenge for the Canadian auto industry.

The main thing — Canada remains an open country with a clear immigration system. Plus, if you want to move to the U.S. later, it'll be substantially easier to do so.

Conclusion — A New Reality

Let's wrap up this story.

Trump decided to use economic pressure to force Canada to submit. Called the prime minister a governor. Threatened annexation. Imposed record tariffs — up to 50% on some goods.

The result? 90% of Canadians are strongly against joining the U.S. Three-quarters are willing to endure a recession for independence. A third are boycotting American goods. Tourism to the U.S. has dropped by a third.

The new prime minister flew to Beijing and signed a trade agreement with a country Canada had a serious conflict with three years ago. Electric vehicles, canola, seafood — a deal worth billions of dollars. Canada has officially set a course to diversify away from the U.S.

Canadian-American relations are experiencing their deepest crisis since the formation of the Canadian Confederation in 1867. For the first time in history, a sitting U.S. president is publicly threatening to annex a neighboring country.

Economic coercion didn't break Canada — it forced it to evolve. Instead of a submissive fifty-first state, the U.S. got a country on its northern border that's using Chinese money and looking for new partners around the world.

The old order won't return — those were Carney's words in Davos. But here's the question: what happens next? Because Trump won't stay quiet. The U.S. won't leave this without consequences.

Did Canada make the right choice by turning to China? Or is this a mistake they'll have to pay for? Time will tell.